Kenny Lane, Rowan County, N.C.
♦ I read the May 3, 2015 article “Reporter Notebook Reality Check: how accurate are those surveys” on WBTV . The article was primarily based on an article from the Statesville Record and Landmark by Donna Swicegood. It concerned the website HomeSnacks.Net and the site HomeSecurityShield.org and stated they offered conflicting information concerning the most dangerous cities in NC while both claimed to use FBI Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data. After a series of email questions to David Ibech with the Statesville Record and Landmark, the two listed sites and WBTV (which never responded to my email) I was finally able to track down the difference. In a nutshell, the only difference is the way the sites used UCR data to rank the cities.
http://www.homesnacks.net/most-dangerous-cities-in-north-carolina-12384/
HomeSecurityShield.org uses UCR data for one year. They add violent crime and property crime and divided the total by the population. This was multiplied by 1000 for their crime rate. HomeSnacks used a similar method, but a “weighted” formula which used data from 2011, 2012 and 2013 (the most recent available). The older data wasn’t counted as heavily. Thus 2013 data was factored to be twice as important as 2012 and six times more important than 2011. There is no “difference” as the two sites didn’t make the same comparison. One used straight data while the other used data averaged over three years with emphasis on the most recent. Both sites used violent crime and property crime rates. Likely others could be located using only the violent crime figures in determining “most dangerous”
The question of how accurate the data is was questioned because of the differing results. The weighted vs. standard year formula easily explains how both can be accurate. Which result gives a truer indication of “dangerous” would be up to the reader. Do you think a single year is more relevant? Do you prefer to average several years weighted towards the most recent as an indication of how the city is trending? The difference in city “ranking” changes yearly on the UCR reports. There is no question that a study measuring several years, weighted towards the most recent, would be different than a straight yearly ranking. The same bit of fact checking I did would have answered the question presented in both articles.
The chief in Statesville was quoted in the Statesville Record and Landmark about there being a difference in burglary rates from his department records vs UCR. Statesville’s reported UCR burglaries were 477 which the department placed at 37. This is misleading as it is comparing a specific NC general statute to FBI UCR reporting. The elements of burglary include entering an occupied residential building during night hours. A break-in covers any building at any time. UCR reporting classifies the similar crimes of burglary and breaking and entering under one heading. The same is done with simple assaults. UCR lists only simple assaults. All misdemeanor assaults are counted this way to avoid confusion. It doesn’t break the categories into NC specific crimes such as assault on a female, assault on handicapped, assault on child under 12, etc. The link to the NC crime reporting is attached below. It describes burglary as:
“The unlawful entry of a “structure” to commit a felony or theft. The use of force to gain entry is not required to classify the same as burglary. Burglary is broken down into three sub-classifications: forcible entry, unlawful entry where no force is used, and attempted forcible entry. A “structure” is considered to include the following but is not limited to: dwelling houses, apartments, outbuildings, public buildings, offices, factories, barns, cabins, etc.”
The chief listed 37 burglaries and 277 breaking and entering to homes. The article states the difference between the 477 and the combined 356 is unexplained. (My math was 315 combined, but regardless a difference is actually easily explained) The remainder would be breaking and entering non-residential, either businesses, outbuildings, barns, etc.
The story also quotes the chief as saying his department counted theft of scooters and other departments did not which caused a inordinately high number of auto thefts for Statesville. If this is correct, the other departments are not following reporting guidelines as it specifically calls for the reporting of mopeds as motor vehicles. The definition of motor vehicle theft is below from the same NC standardized reporting link attached below.
“The unlawful taking or stealing of a motor vehicle, including attempts. This definition excludes taking for temporary use by those persons having lawful access to the vehicle. UCR defines a motor vehicle as a self-propelled vehicle that runs on the ground and not on rails. Examples included automobiles, trucks, buses, motorcycles, mopeds, snowmobiles, etc. Thefts of farm and/or construction equipment, boats, and airplanes are not included in this category but are counted as larcenies.”
Mr. Whisenant reports Salisbury had a similar response without crediting which member of the department made this claim. He states whomever he spoke with questioned how the two surveys claim to use the same information but reached different conclusions. As demonstrated above, they did not make such a claim. Both report using UCR data, but it was NOT calculated in the same way. One was a single year the other was an average of three years.
Mr. Whisenant states, “In many cases the originator of the list has a vested interest in the outcome. That doesn’t automatically negate the accuracy of the information presented, but it does call for closer scrutiny.” He doesn’t mention others may also have a “vested interest” in the outcome. What is used to evaluate a police chief’s performance? It may be advantageous to discredit reports if your department appears to be making poor progress against crime. What impact would inordinate criminal activity have on real estate values? On business considerations to locate to a particular city? Would this motivate anyone to want to discredit a negative ranking? The use of one year studies vs. averaged results from several years isn’t that confusing. Simply doing the fact checking to determine why the results were different would have eliminated the confusion. The original article by Donna Swicegood should have stated this.
The FBI Uniform Crime Report link is attached below the NC standardized reporting guide link for those interested in the reported crime numbers. A couple things need to be considered in reviewing them. This is a list of REPORTED criminal activity. It is not a complete list as many crimes are never reported to law enforcement. Secondly, the list is composed of numbers presented to the FBI, by the department, on the honor system. A Chief/Sheriff could easily improve their image by failing to report accurate numbers or by reclassifying (a break-in becomes a larceny or an arson is classified as vandalism). Hopefully, this isn’t a common practice.
http://crimereporting.ncdoj.gov/Introduction.aspx
http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/crimestats/
